数个世纪以来，玛雅人如何能够准确预测日食 ylc3000 2025-11-16 0 浏览 0 点赞 chat # How the Mayans were able to accurately predict solar eclipses for centuries # 数个世纪以来，玛雅人如何能够准确预测日食 - **Date / 日期:** October 26, 2025 - **By / 作者:** Paul Arnold, Phys.org - **Edited by / 编辑:** Gaby Clark - **Reviewed by / 审阅:** Robert Egan ---  > **EN:** Eclipse table of the Dresden Codex. Credit: *Science Advances* (2025). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adt9039 > > **中文:** 《德累斯顿抄本》中的日食表。来源：*《科学进展》* (2025). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adt9039 --- **EN:** The Maya Civilization, from Central America, was one of the most advanced ancient civilizations, known for its significant achievements in astronomy and mathematics. This includes accurate calendars and detailed celestial records, but scientists don't fully understand all the details of their calculations. However, new research is shedding light on how they predicted future eclipses with remarkable accuracy. **中文:** 玛雅文明源于中美洲，是古代最先进的文明之一，以其在天文学和数学领域的重大成就而闻名。这些成就包括精确的历法和详细的天体记录，但科学家们至今仍未完全理解其计算的所有细节。然而，一项新的研究正在揭示他们是如何以惊人的准确性预测未来日食的。 **EN:** A study published in the journal *Science Advances* analyzes the Dresden Codex, the most famous surviving record of Mayan astronomy. In particular, researchers focused on the eclipse prediction table which spans 405 lunar months. Previous studies were unable to fully explain the table's underlying structure or the mechanism Mayans used to keep it updated for centuries. This paper fills in those missing details. **中文:** 发表在《科学进展》杂志上的一项研究分析了《德累斯顿抄本》，这是现存最著名的玛雅天文学记录。研究人员特别关注了其中跨越405个太阴月的日食预测表。以前的研究无法完全解释该表格的内在结构，也无法解释玛雅人数百年来用以保持其更新的机制。这篇论文填补了这些缺失的细节。 **EN:** The research overturns a long-held assumption that the table's 405-month length meant it was created solely for predicting eclipses. Instead, the paper's authors state that it was first designed as a lunar calendar to align with the Maya's 260-day astrological calendar. **中文:** 这项研究推翻了一个长期以来的假设，即该表格405个月的长度意味着它完全是为了预测日食而创建的。相反，该论文的作者指出，它最初是作为一个太阴历设计的，目的是为了与玛雅人的260天神历（卓尔金历）对齐。 **EN:** They used modeling and statistics to show that the 405-month cycle's length of 11,960 days aligns with the 260-day calendar (46 x 260 = 11,960) much more closely than it aligns with the cycles of solar and lunar eclipses. **中文:** 他们利用建模和统计数据表明，405个太阴月周期（即11960天）与260天的神历（46 x 260 = 11960）的吻合程度，远比它与日食和月食周期的吻合程度要高得多。 **EN:** "Mayan calendar specialists anticipated solar eclipses by correlating their occurrences with dates in their 260-day divinatory calendar," wrote the researchers in their paper. "The 405-month eclipse table had emerged from a lunar calendar in which the 260-day divinatory calendar commensurated the lunar cycle." In other words, the Mayan model for predicting solar eclipses grew directly out of their model for tracking the moon and harmonizing their calendars. **中文:** 研究人员在论文中写道：“玛雅历法专家通过将日食的发生与他们260天的占卜历法中的日期相关联来预测日食。” “这个405个月的日食表源于一个太阴历，在这个历法中，260天的占卜历与月亮周期相称。” 换句话说，玛雅人预测日食的模型直接源于他们追踪月亮和协调其历法的模型。 ### Incredible accuracy ### 惊人的准确性 **EN:** The researchers also solved the mystery of how the Mayans were able to be so accurate with their predictions. Previously, it was thought that once one table finished, they would start a new one. But the latest study shows that to maintain correct predictions for over 700 years, the Mayans used a system of overlapping tables. Instead of starting a new table, they would reset the next table to precise internals of 223 or 358 months before the previous table ended to correct for small astronomical errors that accumulate over time. **中文:** 研究人员还解开了玛雅人预测如此精确的谜团。以前，人们认为当一个表格用完后，他们会开始一个新的。但最新的研究表明，为了在700多年的时间里保持预测的正确性，玛雅人使用了一种重叠表格的系统。他们并不会开始一个全新的表格，而是在前一个表格结束前的223或358个月的精确时间点重置下一个表格，以修正随时间累积的微小天文误差。 **EN:** The research team reached this conclusion by mathematically modeling the table's predictions against a historical database of actual solar eclipses visible to the Maya between 350 and 1150 CE. Updating the table this way ensured that it could predict every observable solar eclipse for centuries. **中文:** 研究团队通过将表格的预测与公元350年至1150年间玛雅人可见的实际日食历史数据库进行数学建模，得出了这一结论。以这种方式更新表格，确保了它能够预测数个世纪以来每一次可观测到的日食。 网闻录 数个世纪以来，玛雅人如何能够准确预测日食